Methodology
How we find an edge.
Five steps, no black box. Here's exactly what happens between a sportsbook posting a number and that number showing up on your board.
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Step 1
We ingest the board
Every player prop across our covered leagues, pulled continuously from the market — plus the underlying stats: box scores, usage, pace, minutes, matchup splits, injury and rest news.
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Step 2
We build our own number
For each prop we generate a projection independent of the posted line: what we expect this player to do tonight, given role, opponent, and recent form. The market's number is never an input to ours.
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Step 3
We measure the gap
Our projection minus the market line is the raw edge. A projection of 29.3 against a line of 27.5 is a +1.8 edge on the Over. Small gaps are noise; we're looking for gaps larger than the stat's normal game-to-game swing.
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Step 4
We check the price
An edge only counts if the number you can actually get still contains it. We compare the odds posted across books, keep the best available price, and drop candidates where the vig eats the gap.
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Step 5
You see what survived
Only the leans that clear both tests reach the board, each with its line, our projection, the edge, the best price and the book posting it, plus a last-10 hit rate. Lines move all night, so the board re-prices continuously and stale edges drop off.
Straight talk
What a model can't do.
The honest limits, up front — because the alternative is finding out later.
A projection is not a prediction.
A +1.8 edge means we think the number is mispriced, not that the Over is guaranteed. Individual games are noisy. The value shows up across many decisions, not one.
We show losses too.
Every published pick is logged with its outcome — including the ones that miss. The last 30 days stay on the site, readable with a free account, so you can check the record before you trust the model with anything.
No verified track record yet.
We're new, and we'd rather say so than post numbers we can't back. Every pick is graded and stays on the site for 30 days; judge us on the record as it builds.
21 and over, and we check.
This is analysis, not a sportsbook — we take no wagers and hold no funds. It still sits close enough to betting that we won't publish picks to an anonymous visitor of unknown age, so every pick needs a free account and signup asks for your date of birth.
This isn't betting advice.
We publish research. What you do with it is your call, and no model changes the fact that you can lose.
The output
This is what lands on your board.
Top edge today
Jayson Tatum — Over 27.5 Pts
Nikola Jokic
DEN · C
Jalen Brunson
NYK · G
Check our work.
The full board is live tonight. Read the reasoning, track the results, decide for yourself.